This article is a mid/high level article on the concept of “Next Leveling” and how to incorporate the concept into your view of Warmachine and Hordes effectively.
Next Leveling is a term that I first heard from the MoM gents, but the notion is something that I’ve been familiar with for years. Next leveling means that you’re trying to stay one step ahead of the trends in the national meta-game. The example given on a recent podcast was that MoM predicts Steamroller 2013 rules will cause the national meta-game to shift toward more durable and mid-line casters. The “next level” insight would be to go into the assassination casters, based on that prediction.
People try to “next level” in various industries as well. Professional “next leveling” can make you a fortune. I’ve talked about the value of preempting your opponent in a few prior articles, but this time I want to break into some modeling. Finance is probably the most notable field where people can “next level”. Here, you’re predicting where the market (essentially a financial meta-game) is moving.
One way to try and set up predictions to the market is to base your guess on linked variables (indicators). By example; droughts are hard on crop yield. If the United States has a huge drought, the price of crops like corn is likely to go up. This makes presence of drought a leading variable to corn prices.
So why don’t people make tons of money doing that? Because everyone keeps an eye out for things like this and the market self-corrects almost instantaneously. A few dry days instant impact the futures market for corn and as a result, public information like this is rarely profitable. The friction of investing/divesting is only overcome in large trades on an incredible short time-scale. Thankfully, that’s the sign of a good efficient capital market. You can’t cheat the market with public knowledge. Good.
The opposite of a leading variable is a lagging variable. I’m sure you can guess how that works.
Another more subtle example of a leading variable is the likes of teenage girls (LOTG). I know that sounds ridiculous, but it’s a pretty well established phenomena. I want you to go searching around in your head for things that ONLY teenage girls liked for a year or two that are now everywhere you look.
Examples of LOTG at work;
Twitter (I think Ashton helped this one along
I’ve got some very big news for you gamers out there. Privateer Press is riding the LOTG wave as well. I’ve pulled up a few numbers and you wouldn’t believe what I’ve found. The graph below shows that PhatAsian’s LOTG score almost perfectly correlates to Privateer Press revenues as a 2-3 month leading variable. As a result, the more and more popular PhatAsian gets, the bigger and bigger the Warmachine casual community will become.
I was shocked at first by the accuracy of the results. Then, as I thought about it a little more, it all started to make this strange kind of sense. How long ago was WMW? Didn’t PhatAsian experience a burst in LOTG as a result of his signing booth? How long ago was MoM talking about the increase in causal players? Are they linked? Yes. They are most certainly linked, in a BIG BIG way.
I couldn’t be happier about PhatAsian serving as a banner carrier for Warmachine community with the teenage girl crowd. He’s friendly, lovable, cuddly, and holds an uncanny resemblance to that kid from UP. All of these factors make him a fantastic ambassador with limitless LOTG potential. PhatAsian’s appeal will translate to future market success for Privateer Press and for that, I couldn’t be more grateful.
Thank you PhatAsian. Thank you for making the Warmachine flourish so extensively by winning over the hearts and minds of teenage girls all across the World.
The more you troll… (hum that little diddy in your head when you say this last part)