Templecon by the numbers

 

The Templecon 2012 convention was held in Februari 2012, and hosted a number of tournaments that together represent one of the major competitive events in the Warmachine and Hordes season. That makes it a good opportunity to take a snapshot of the competitive environment. Who is playing what, and more importantly, who is winning?

The below numbers were originally posted on the Privateer Press forums, using tournament data from the 7 singles tournaments at Templecon, but they are repeated here as the first in a series of such breakdowns, as more tournament data becomes available. Numbers are fun, but they don’t mean much if you can’t compare them.

Very important disclaimer: These numbers are a limited snapshot of one event. Interesting, but not by themselves representative of the state of Warmachine/Hordes as a whole. Please don’t consider them as anything else.

Attendance

Convention

A grand total of 489 matches were played.

162 players played at least one tournament round.

The maximum amount of games by a single player was 18.
23 people played 10+ games, 4 people played only a single round.
The average player played 6.03 games in 1.49 tournaments.

Tournament breakdown

Blood, Sweat and Tiers: 26 players
Flanks: 45 players
Hardcore: 35 players
Standard Issue: 43 players
Death Race: 63 players
Last Rites: 14 players
Masters: 16 players

ELO ranking

An ELO system is often used in games such as Chess or Go, and creates a player rating that is adjusted by a number of points relative to the skill of their opponent, each game.

If all Templecon players would start out at the same level, after the tournament the ranking would look like the following:

http://www.wmladder.com/ranking/2

It’s pretty interesting to note that Jamie Perkins took the top spot from Will Pagani only in the Masters finals itself.

Faction Popularity

141 people played a single faction throughout the event,
19 people played 2 factions,
2 people played 3 different factions.

That makes for 185 different armies.

The armies were distributes across the factions as follows:

 

Faction # Armies % Armies
Circle Orboros 22 12%
Cryx 28 15%
Cygnar 22 12%
Khador 23 12%
Legion of Everblight 22 12%
Mercenaries 15 8%
Minions 8 4%
Protectorate of Menoth 14 8%
Retribution of Scyrah 6 3%
Skorne 14 8%
Trollbloods 11 6%

A slight preference for Cryx among, followed by a group of evenly represented factions, but Minions and Retribution were underrepresented.

Faction Performance

It is valuable to take a look at how the win percentage is distributed across the the factions. However, as the number of matches is quite limited to make a good estimate, the percentages are represented as a 95% confidence interval.

Faction # armies ± interval
Circle Orboros 50,5% 9,3%
Cryx 59,5% 7,9%
Cygnar 47,5% 9,7%
Khador 48,7% 9,1%
Legion of Everblight 41,6% 9,6%
Mercenaries 46,0% 12,3%
Minions 50,0% 15,9%
Protectorate of Menoth 47,0% 12,0%
Retribution of Scyrah 42,9% 18,3%
Skorne 57,5% 11,3%
Trollbloods 47,8% 14,4%

Top Bracket

Along with the average performance for the entire field of participants, we can contrast the performance of the top players, to examine peak performance. Only players with at least an average number of games were considered (no greater weight is given to competitions like the Masters, this is simply matches played and won, per player).

Looking at the top 25% of players, are any factions better represented than others?

Unequivocally yes, fully a third of the Top 25% was playing Cryx. That means either a lot of the better players attending Templecon elected to bring Cryx, or Cryx provided some kind of edge to get into the top 25%, or a combination of both.

We can take a look at the breakdown of the overachievers to get an idea of which it is:

 

This graph shows the win percentage of the bottom 75% of players, contrasted with the top 25%. A couple of things can be pointed out.

  • First off, the win rate of Cryx players doesn’t seem exceptional compared to the other factions. This could mean that the high proportion is indeed explained merely by a larger number of good players choosing to bring Cryx to Templecon, or that Cryx provides an early boost that does not scale in the higher echelons of competition, or simply that all the other top players brought lists that could deal with Cryx effectively.
  • Cygnar seems to struggle a little bit, except in the hands of excellent players. At the top, their win rate is not significantly different from any other faction.
  • There were only a few Minion players at Templecon, but they were talented.

Faction Matchups

FInally, we can look at how factions match up against each other. Because the number of games is limited and even then subdivided into 66 more categories, these numbers are not at all representative of the factions, though, only of the specific games played at Templecon. Don’t read more into it than you should.

Read from rows to columns, in percent.

Uncle Maudlin’s advice for Templecon:

Do: Come loaded for Cryx. The upper brackets are teeming with them.
Don’t: Tangle with fast-talking Brits.

 

Author: Maudlin

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