There’s a branch of quantitative analysis (nerd math) called Game Theory. While the word “theory” is in there, I’m not going to pontificate about Hunters under Ossyan’s feat or anything like that. What I am going to show you is a pretty deep frame work for looking at interactions between two intelligent players. Oh… and I’ll tie it into Warmachine and Hordes for good measure.
Math needs pictures so let’s get into the examples right away. One of the most popular Game Theory interactions is called “The Prisoner’s Dilemma”. You’ve got two guys (A and B) involved in a crime together. Criminal A is sitting there talking to the cops. He’s got two choices (snitch, hold out). Criminal B is facing the mirror scenario. If they both hold out, they each face minor time in jail (1 year) and beat the system. If one snitches while the other holds out, the cops we’ll give him a break (zero time for snitch, 10 years to the hold out). If both snitch on one another they each get five years. On the surface it seems like the two would hold out, beat the system and get off.
At right is a diagram and the numbers are “years”.
As an example, negative ten means ten years in jail. Criminal A can choose to snitch or hold out on the left side. B can choose to snitch or hold out on the top. Let’s look at A’s choices. No matter what B does, A is better off snitching. That’s called a dominant strategy. If you can do one thing that’s ALWAYS better no matter what your opponent does, then you have a pretty easy choice on your hands. Do that better thing! It’s rational for A to snitch. But wait, let’s not ignore B. B can hope against hope that A’s dumb or hasn’t read this article. Looking at A’s actions, B will also deduces that he’s better off snitching. B has the same dominant strategy; snitch.
These poor saps will always snitch on one another.
That’s the rub. You can play this game in isolated rooms. You can play it face to face. It doesn’t matter. Rational players will always rat one another out. I probably should have said [Spoiler Alert] for the Law and Order fans out there. My bad.
If you’re still with me you’ve just digested some heavy stuff. So how does this relate to Warmachine? There are three ways to find yourself in a Prisoner’s Dilemma in Warmachine.
1. List Selection in a Steam Roller Tournament
I reached out to a few high level tourney studs for help on this one. List Selection and interaction holds a lot of subtly. So here are two examples of Prisoner’s Dilemma in the Steam Roller environment.
Courtesy of Keith Christianson;
Player A: Ashphyxious2 (hold out) and Terminus (snitch)
Player B: Caine2 (hold out) and Haley1
Lich2 doesn’t like Haley1 because Temporal Barrier negates his feat. Caine2 can’t play against Terminus well because Sacrificial Pawn is a ball buster. The two players end up playing the miserable grind fest of Terminus vs. Haley1 despite likely preferring the Lich2 vs. Caine2 game.
Courtesy of Michael Chilly Winters (adding a familiar opponent layer);
Winters: Skarre1 (hold out) and Terminus (snitch)
Pagani: Kromac (hold out) and Krueger1 (snitch)
Based on personal preference, the match would be Skarre1 vs. Kromac and both players would get to use their favored caster. Unfortunately for them, Will’s dominant strategy is Krueger1 due to infantry clearing potential and Michael’s dominant strategy is Terminus. As a result, these two end up playing the Krueger1 vs. Terminus game against their true preference.
As you get to high levels of play in Warmachine, you start realizing that there are a lot intelligent dudes out there. Use that to your advantage. Your opponent will typically behave rationally and in their own best interest. Knowing that, you can strategically react and account for it.
2. Piece Trading
You’ve got a beat stick. He’s got a beat stick. Each of you could avoid one another and be happier. The outcome payouts can resemble a Prisoner’s Dilemma. The solution being that you trade and end up slap fighting for eternity.
3. Pulling a Nick Swardson and showing off your “watch” at a convention.
Don’t show your “watch” to people who don’t want to see it. This will land you in a different type of Prisoner’s Dilemma.
There are a number of games out there to identify and really big brains or intuitive ones realize their opponent is equally intelligent, count on it, and select a solution in their best interest. The top players do it all the time. I’m going to break down a few more Game Theory frameworks in future articles. A few particular ones come to mind;
The Hawk-Dove Game: Aggressive or Defensive posturing. Lot’s of Warmachine application. Credible threat of force is the name of the game.
Rock/Paper/Scissors: This screams Yomi. I love Yomi. Great game.
Battle of the Sexes: Two players, two collaborative equilibrium. One player wins. Make it you.
Fun fact: The Mafia figured out the Prisoner’s Dilemma and changed the game so the solution was [hold out, hold out]. How you ask?? Whacking the snitch. Look at the pay out grid involving that new element.
Fancy that. Organized crime works!
The more you know… (hum the little diddy in your head when you read this last part)