Mayhem Cup by the numbers

Straight on to a look at the Mayhem Cup, another of the qualifiers for Warmachine Weekend Masters.

These numbers include the main Mayhem Cup 50 point tournament, as well as the 35 point tournament.

Attendance

A total of 59 players participated in the event.

166 games were played across both tournaments.

ELO Ranking

All games were entered into a ranking, which can be found at the address below:

http://www.wmladder.com/ranking/3

Faction Popularity

At this point it becomes interesting to see how the distribution of factions differs from the 2012 season baseline. That’s a little presumptuous at this point, as the 2012 baseline I can compare it to consists only of the tournaments at Templecon, but it’s fun to compare anyway.

The armies were distributes across the factions as follows, baseline in red, current event in blue.

Faction # armies % armies
Circle Orboros 5 8%
Cryx 7 12%
Cygnar 7 12%
Khador 7 12%
Legion of Everblight 7 12%
Mercenaries 4 7%
Minions 2 3%
Protectorate of Menoth 6 10%
Retribution of Scyrah 5 8%
Skorne 5 8%
Trollbloods 4 7%

A remarkably similar turnout, with slightly fewer Cryx and Circle players, in favor of Protectorate and Retribution.

Faction Performance

A look at the performance per faction, once again compared to the baseline in red.

Faction # armies ± interval
Circle Orboros 54,2% 19,9%
Cryx 58,5% 15,1%
Cygnar 57,1% 18,3%
Khador 44,1% 16,7%
Legion of Everblight 42,1% 15,7%
Mercenaries 38,9% 22,5%
Minions 38,5% 26,4%
Protectorate of Menoth 43,3% 17,7%
Retribution of Scyrah 43,3% 17,7%
Skorne 55,6% 18,7%
Trollbloods 69,6% 18,8%

The confidence intervals are a little wider here, but we can make an well-educated guess that the 4 Trollblood players knew what they were doing. Circle and particularly Cygnar also performed above the norm, with Mercs and Minions disappointing a little.

Cryx performed as it did at Templecon, which is still excellent.

Top Bracket

Let’s again look at the Top 25% of players.

A nice and even spread across the factions, no spikes. How did those players perform?

Some interesting things to look at, here.

  • Only the top (2) Circle players seemed to fare well. The others either dropped out early or took a beating. Combined with the Templecon data, where the win rate doubled from 40% to 80% when looking at the top quartile, it can be hypothesised that Circle is indeed a skill-intensive faction.
  • Only one Cygnar player made it to the top 25%, but he went undefeated. The other Cygnar players did pretty well too, though.
  • These numbers also seems to corroborate the notion that Cryx can give a leg-up, but provides no significant advantage at the top level of play.
  • All the trollblood players got very good results, but didn’t make it to the very top.
Perhaps unnecessary to point it out, but I personally like seeing how much the win percentages really shoot upwards when you examine the top players. It shows it really all comes down to skill.

Faction Matchups

FInally, just for the sake of completeness, the faction matchups. I’ve included the table showing the number of games played. Obviously, for such a low number of games per matchup, it doesn’t say much of anything about the odds, rather just about the individual games played.

Meta Positioning

Because 4 players who participated in the Mayhem Cup also played at Templecon, and we now have a rating for these players from both tournaments, we can make a guess at how both metas stack up to each other in terms of competitiveness. If a player gets a high rating in the Mayhem Cup but gets thrashed at the national competition at Templecon, that reveals something about the strength of the field.

Of course, 4 people is not a big sample, and after only a few games the ratings are not likely to be very accurate, but it illustrates the idea.

In this case, when we take the median of the 4 players’ difference in rating, we get a result of only about 30 points higher ratings in the Mayhem Cup. Given the scaling factor used in this ELO ranking, that means if one of these players had a 50% chance of defeating a certain opponent at Templecon, he had a 62% chance in the Mayhem Cup. That’s actually a very small difference, given that the whole range of values is some 250 to 290 points wide.

The evidence is not conclusive, but it does support the idea that the competitive field at the Mayhem Cup was strong.

Uncle Maudlin’s advice for the Mayhem Cup:

Do: Prepare to meet some very good Trollblood and Cygnar players.
Don’t: Don’t forget the meta will be wildly different next year.

Author: Maudlin

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